Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 27 November 2014, 10:23 PM
Vene, vidi... amavit (I came, I saw, I fell in love...)
And well, no visit to Rome is complete without an audience with Papa Francesco himself (and the Italian football team)...
Or indeed a wee spin in a Ferrari...
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 27 November 2014, 10:02 PM
All roads lead to Rome - and at night they led me for a wondrous week across this truly magnificent city, fueled by a nearly endless supply of Italian espresso and gelato (Italian ice cream).
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 19 November 2014, 1:05 PM
As expected, we've been having some lovely dry, fine and exceptionally mild easterly weather lately. Current indications indicate that it will last until Friday night/Saturday (21st/22nd November), before more seasonal heavy rain, showers and south-westerly winds return over the weekend and into next week. It will turn temporarily much colder for a time Sat/Sun too (with sleet on the hills), but will quickly turn mild again next week.
Eddie, Stornoway, 18 Nov 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 09 November 2014, 10:36 PM
Yes, as indicated in my last post of more than 1 week ago - high pressure is indeed building to the north of Scotland, meaning the resulting east and south-east winds are likely to bring good drying conditions and fine skies for several days across the Hebrides and Northwest Highlands.
It won't be rain-free all the time, but there'll certainly be a lot less rain than we've had during the past 3-4 weeks. So some good news indeed!
Eddie, Stornoway, 9 Nov 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 02 November 2014, 12:49 PM
Despite October & November being two of the wettest months of the year normally, it has been exceptionally wet recently - indeed it has been near-record wet.
A quick look at the weather stats for Stornoway town show that 150mm (6 inches) of rain fell in final 15 days of the October. As the graph shows below, 15-day running totals of 150+mm have only occurred three times in the past 15 years, so yes, we are having a particularly unusual wet spell at the moment, equivalent to an event of about once in every 5 years.
Another 18.1mm fell during the day on Saturday 1st November - probably increasing the above odds yet further... but there are tentative signs the weather may finally quieten down by late next week as high pressure builds from the east - thank heavens!
Eddy, Stornoway, 2 Nov 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 26 October 2014, 8:39 PM
If you've been staying anywhere near the west or north-west of Scotland over the past week or so, you'll know just how relentless the rain has been... but there's an even bigger threat of flooding tomorrow (Mon 27 Oct) for the mountains of the West Highlands (from Oban north through Fort William to Ullapool, including Harris and Skye).
Eddy ain't expecting record rainfall amounts, but the Met Office has wisely issued an amber alert for heavy 'orographic' rainfall across the region. Orographic means 'of mountains', and whilst we all appreciate that mountains are wetter places than surrounding lowlands - what's happening tomorrow makes them very much wetter places. It's called the "seeder-feeder" mechanism, whereby "average"-sized raindrops falling from a high frontal cloud-band fall down "seeding" low-level clouds lying over the mountain summits. Whilst passing through these dense, water-rich clouds, they rapidly "feed" upon that cloud's droplets, making the resulting raindrops much bigger - yielding a greater quantity of rain at the surface (Hill, Browning and Bader 1981). It was the same mechanism that led to the Cockermouth flood in Cumbria in November 2009, after intense orographic rainfall over the Lake District of England (Sibley, 2010).
How much rain is gonna fall?
See map above (courtesy GFS met model) - the current low resolution model cumulative rainfall amounts suggest 100-150mm of rain is expected at least, for most locations across the West Highlands, but I expect some places will receive up to 250mm in 48 hours (on top of what's already fallen). These are not records amounts, but are still very significant falls of rain, making the potential for flooding and disruption. The burns and rivers are likely to become dangerous, raging torrents.
Some Weather Stats for Past Few Days (Stornoway):
- 85mm (3.35in) of rain has fallen over the past 9 days in Stornoway town
- 73mm (2.95in) of rain fell in 36hrs at Loch Glascarnoch (nr Ullapool) from 6am Saturday to 6pm Sunday
- 55mm (2.16in) of rain has fallen at Lusa, Skye (nr Broadford) in the past 24hrs
- The maximum wind gust of 67mph at Stornoway on Saturday night was stronger than that during ex-hurricane Gonzalo of last week!
Eddy, Stornoway, 26/10/2014, 9pm
Hill, F. F., Browning, K. A., & Bader, M. J. (1981). Radar and raingauge observations of orographic rain over south Wales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 107(453), 643-670.
Sibley, A. (2010). Analysis of extreme rainfall and flooding in Cumbria 18–20 November 2009. Weather, 65(11), 287-292.
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 19 October 2014, 2:28 PM
There's a kind of 'anticipated panic' setting in across Scotland today, the sort that you might expect in a 'Godzilla' movie - all because the remains of ex-hurricane Gonzalo are due to pass over us tonight and tomorrow.
Here's a sat-pic of Gonzalo (courtesy Environment Canada) over the Atlantic at -65W, 48 hours ago (note the eye at his centre):
Well - here's Eddy's viewpoint (an update from previous post of last week, below):
As expected, ex-hurricane Gonzalo will pass right over Scotland tomorrow night (Monday) and into Tuesday.There won't be a hurricane - but there'll be heavy rain and blustery winds, continuing the unsettled theme to the weather of the past 48 hours. On Tuesday a strong gale force wind (force 9, perhaps 10) will belt in from the northwest across the Hebrides - with a slight risk remaining of locally stronger gusts and squalls, as the passage of ex-hurricanes are generally not very well forecast. So still very unpleasant weather (but not a hurricane). Max wind gusts will be around 60-70mph.
Eddy, Stornoway, 19/10/2014, 2:30pm
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 13 October 2014, 10:09 PM
In case you weren't aware - it's North Atlantic hurricane season - which runs from July to November each year. On average, the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean actually get fewer tropical cyclones per year than the far-east, and this year has proved no exception with some extraordinarily severe typhoons forming in the far-east in past weeks.
As for Bonny Scotland - we've already had the remains of "Big Bertha" in August (bringing floods and damage), and the chance of another ex-hurricane (or a deep depression formed from the remains of an earlier hurricane) brushing our shores remain high for the coming weeks... presently there's a hint that Hurricane Gonzalo (not Godzilla!) will head north-east across the North Atlantic around 21st-23rd of the coming month... so keep posted!
(n.b. No updates from Eddy till next week)
Eddy, Stornoway, 13/10/2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 09 October 2014, 11:27 AM
The NASA MODIS satellite sensor picked up very clearly the large plumes of sediment along the Eastern coast of Scotland yesterday (8th October 2014), following a powerful storm in the region the day before.
The plume from Cowie Water (a river) exiting Stonehaven (top of image) is most noticable. Given the correct conditions, river water (being fresh) will float on top of saline sea water (being more dense).
Eddie, Stornoway, 9/10/2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 02 October 2014, 3:06 PM
N.B. Remember that you can find all my latest weather updates on Twitter @eddy_weather with hashtag #uhiweather
3pm Thurs: Winds are already a southerly gale force 8 at Stornoway Airport, and they'll increase further this evening and tonight, reaching gusts well over 60mph by late evening. Heavy rain is likely too.
Here's the sat-pic for Thursday morning - showing a classic baroclinic wave typical of severe depressions and cold front separation.
Slight damage is possible, particularly around Stornoway as the trees are still in leaf (i.e. heavier) and the southerly wind will funnel up the Minch considerably.
Friday 9am: Max gusts as follows: Stornoway Severe Gale Force 9 at 8pm, gusting 62mph. Total rainfall: 15.1mm.
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 29 September 2014, 9:14 PM
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 12 September 2014, 10:59 AM
The political climate of Scotland is not the only thing that's heating up to fever pitch at the moment... for the fine Indian Summer weather that we've been having recently is set to continue for much of the coming week in the run-up to the historic Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th September. Indeed, it could even intensify into a possible mini-heatwave...
It's said Emperor Constantine saw a cross in the sky on the eve of a famous battle (which he won) and it was instrumental in his conversion to Christianity... well let's see what I photographed in the sky..
The September air temperature record for Stornoway is +25.0degC. At the moment, this record looks unlikely to be breached but it could well be approached as temperatures exceed 20degC across the NW Highlands and the Isles this weekend and early next week.
Eddie, Stornoway, 12 Sep 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 05 September 2014, 9:55 AM
If you haven't noticed the incredible number of midges that has been plaguing the Highlands & Islands for the past month or more... well you can't have been living at all! - This year's midge numbers have been confirmed as record breaking, with as many as 900,000 midges caught in a single trap in on day in Wester Ross last month.
For the past week or more, the wee blighters have even entered Tesco supermarket in Stornoway, and proceeded to devour customers as well as the checkout assistants - I personally had to escape the Fruit n' Veg aisle and head towards the cooler midge-free dairy aisle in order to escape being bitten!
The reason for the vampire invasion: A very mild, wet winter with no hard frosts, followed by a wet, humid and warm summer.
Eddie, Stornoway, 5 Sep 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 01 September 2014, 9:55 PM
With a total of 185.1mm (7.31in) of rain, it has been the wettest August in the Stornoway region since 1992, some twenty-two years ago.
But somewhat in compensation, the final week of sunshine at the end of the month meant that it was no less sunny than normal, and the cold spell of weather mid-month was equally offset by a warm start and finish.
Eddy, Stornoway, 1 Sep 2014.
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 25 August 2014, 9:35 AM
There's at least three days of fine fresh "Indian summer" weather ahead - though it'll be cool overnight with heavy early autumn dews, the days should be gloriously fine with long sunny spells and warm temperatures up into the mid-teens degC.
Interestingly, yesterday (Sunday 24th August) saw glorious skies across most of the Isles and the westside of Lewis - though the sun was spoiled by local cloud and showers over central Harris and east Lewis (including Stornoway) as the satellite image (below) shows. But with the wind shifting into the east from today onwards, this shouldn't happen again - enjoy!.
Eddie, Stornoway, Mon 25/8/2014, 09h30
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 20 August 2014, 10:11 AM
We are not experiencing record low air temperatures for August, but there has certainly been a very autumnal chill in the air over recent days.
The high temp on August 18th in Stornoway was a mere +12.3degC. Although more akin to mid-October than mid-August, this is still some 3degC above the record daytime low for August in Stornoway which is +9.4degC recorded on 26th August 1919. There have been at least 120 occasions in the past 145 years of days in August in Stornoway when the max temp failed to reach above 12.3degC (equivalent to a chance of about 1 in 34).
Wrap up and stay warm!
Eddie, Stornoway, 20.08.2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 14 August 2014, 4:29 PM
Tues 12/8/2014, 9pm: Boy, what a storm it was - you'll have seen all the damage on the news - here are the highest rainfall totals - the Wester Ross and Ullapool area seem to have been badly hit:
Fair Isle: 136.2mm (in 24hrs)
Dundonnell (south of Ullapool): 124.7mm (in 24hrs), with 160mm falling in the Ullapool area in 48hours (that's 6.3 inches!)
Stornoway town: 55.6mm (in 30hrs) - so in comparison we escaped quite lightly!
Some photos of the flooding and debris near Ullapool / Carrbridge (sources: Erica Gearty / BBC / Hebrides News):
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 11 August 2014, 10:43 AM
Ex-hurricane Bertha showed a beautiful eye over the North Sea this morning - with a stormy wrap-around of cloud stretching right across the north of Scotland towards the Hebrides:
Image: METEOSAT HRV
As I type, Stornoway is currently being battered by gale force NW winds and torrential rain, with 25.3mm (1.00in) of rain falling by 10h00 this morning (the all-time rainfall record for Stornoway is 69.8mm/2.74in). Worryingly,the high resolution GFS met model is predicting 24-hr totals over Lewis and NW Scotland of 75-80mm today - let's wait and see!
Eddie, Stornoway, 10h45, Monday 11th August 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 06 August 2014, 1:18 PM
Make no mistake about it... ex-hurricane "Bertha" is on her way to Britain!
However, before nationwide panic sets in... I hasten to add that hurricanes in the strictest definition do not occur in Britain - instead, the very warm and humid air associated with them sometimes get wrapped into our familiar low-pressure systems, giving them a kind of "turbo boost". That is what will happen over the coming weekend, as a very vigorous low pressure system will sweep in from the south-west, bringing heavy rain and downpours (risk of local flooding), strong winds and generally bad August weather!
Here's the FNMOC NAVGEM plot of Bertha's route across the Atlantic (see small red & blue hurricane symbols) as she hits Britain early next Monday morning:
Image courtesy NASA/MODIS
So please keep posted - follow me on twitter at: https://twitter.com/eddy_weather
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 06 August 2014, 12:27 PM
July 2014 was the 3rd warmest July on record in Stornoway (after 2006 and 1933), and 7th warmest month (of any month) since available meteorological observations began in 1873. On the 24th of the month, a high value of 27.0degC was measured in Stornoway town, which is highest temperature ever recorded in Stornoway. It was also a very sunny month, with 191 hours of total sunshine (140% of average).
The heat culminated during 8-day period from the 18th-26th inclusive, with six consecutive days reaching above 20degC (and 8 out of 9 days also exceeding this value) - a very rare event. The average maximum temperature of these 6 days was 21.6degC, a value that has only been equalled on three previous occasions (July 1897, August 1976 and June 2009).
The historic incidence of a six-day period with air temperatures above 20degC in Stornoway can be seen in the following graph - on only 7 previous occasions has this occurred since the year 1873 i.e. about a 1 in 20-year event.
Image courtesy NASA/MODIS
Stornoway Airport's value of 25.0degC on the 24th was the highest since July 2003 (when 26.2degC was recorded) - the record remains 26.3degC from August 1999.
Eddie, Stornoway, August 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 10 July 2014, 11:44 PM
Make no mistake... high summer has arrived on the Isles.. what a glorious few days of weather we've been having these past few days !
And together with the magnificent clear skies, the NASA satellite today has picked up what seems to be a beautiful cyan Phytoplankton bloom off the north coast of Scotland (see image below).
Phytoplankton are microscopic sea plants that grow in especially think densities when bright sunshine interacts with nutrients caused by the upwelling of cold waters (which sometimes happens around western coasts of the British Isles during spring and early summer).
Image courtesy NASA/MODIS
Eddie, Stornoway, 10 July 2014.
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 05 July 2014, 9:04 PM
Experiencing nearly all the elements in one day, the first Audax Hebrides 110km cycle challenge took place today on Lewis and Harris (a kind of Hebridean "Tour de France").
Leaving Stornoway ay 10a.m., fine sunshine soon gave way to showers (spawning repeatedly from the Clisham) on the route down to Kershader - some later groups of cyclists got soaked indeed. However, we were greeted with warm sunshine & dry conditions when arriving at the Ravenspoint Centre, South Lochs for checkpoint #1.
It was then back up on the bikes in the warm sunshine to Leurbost and the left turn for Calanais, only to be hit by a stupendous hailstorm and flashfloods at Achmore (where the spray & wash from passing cars completely drenched us cyclists!.
Arriving at Calanais visitor centre for checkpoint #2, we were rewarded with beautifully warm hot chocolate (with cinnamon) and banana cake. Then onto the serendipitous Blue Pig Studio in Carloway (what a marvellous place!), where Aoife had made yet another glorious cake to eat and share! Whilst, there there was another almighty downpour of rain and hail, & a crack of thunder too!
For the final high-speed leg back to Stornoway across the Pentland Road, the sun shone and I was almost dry on arrival at the Bridge Centre.
You can see the contrasting weather in these photographs I took from Achmore, shortly before the hailstorm hit at 1:30pm. Also, the NASA satellite image for today (following image) shows sunny Point and South Lochs, whilst the thunder clouds were building over the hills.
With great thanks to Audax Hebrides and Ian Gilbert - a great day for all
Eddy, Stornoway, 5/7/2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 02 July 2014, 10:00 PM
Stornoway during June 2014: Mild, dull and rather dry
I've just worked out the weather statistics for the month past (June 2014):
- With an average daily high of 16.1degC and average daily low of 10.7degC, it was the mildest June since 1970
- It was also the 3rd mildest June in 141 years of recorded weather observations in Stornoway (after 1970 and 1940)
- It was disappointingly dull with only 141 hours of total sunshine (80% of average, and about a 1 in 5 chance of occurrence)
Well, I'll finish with this stunner of a satellite image from NASA of the Hebrides yesterday (Tuesday 1st July) - a "cracker" of a day - let's hope the summer has more days like this in store!
Eddy, Stornoway, 2 July 2014
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 30 June 2014, 9:45 AM
After more than 3 weeks of mostly dry weather across the Isles, rain & fresh winds from the west and south-west are set to return by the middle of this week.
Expect a good spell of steady rain on Wednesday, accompanied by fresh SW winds. Expect showers with lighter winds on Thursday, but heavy rain and the risk of strong winds will arrive on Friday - well hey, summer has arrived on the Isles!
E., 30/6/2014, 10a.m.
Posted by Dr. Eddy Graham on 27 June 2014, 9:42 AM
Wed 2nd July 2014 final news:
Alas - the swimmers never made it, the northerly swell proved too difficult and dangerous to continue - a brave attempt nonetheless!
Update Monday 30/6/2014: The swimmers are nearly there! (You can track their progress at: http://stkildaswim.weebly.com/follow-us-live.html
Ok, here's your final forecast - please read carefully as the timeframe of the weather window appears to be closing...
FINAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR ST. KILDA SWIM
E. 27/6/1014, 09h30